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Steven D. Levitt
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Steven D. Levitt
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
Know that some people will do everything they can to game the system, finding ways to win that you never could have imagined. If only to keep yourself sane, try to applaud their ingenuity rather than curse their greed.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
If the consequences of pretending to know can be so damaging, why do people keep doing it? That's easy: in most cases, the cost of saying "I don't know" is higher than the cost of being wrong-at least for the individual.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
We've come to the conclusion that it's much better to ask small questions than big ones. Here are a few reasons: 1. Small questions are by their nature less often asked and investigated, and maybe not at all. They are virgin territory for true learning. 2. Since big problems are usually a dense mass of intertwined small problems, you can make more progress by tackling a small piece of the big problem than by flailing away at grand solutions. 3. Any kind of change is hard, but the chances of triggering change on a small problem are much greater than on a big one. 4. Thinking big is, by definition, an exercise in imprecision or even speculation. When you think small, the stakes may be diminished but at least you can be relatively sure you know what you're talking about.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
Keepers jump left 57 percent of the time and right 41 percent-which means they stay in the center only 2 times out of 100. A leaping keeper may of course still stop a ball aimed at the center, but how often can that happen? If only you could see the data on all penalty kicks taken toward the center of the goal! Okay, we just happen to have that: a kick toward the center, as risky as it may appear, is seven percentage points more likely to succeed than a kick to the corner. Are you willing to take the chance?
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
3. Once people are asked to donate, the social pressure is so great that they get bullied into giving, even though they wish they'd never been asked in the first place. Mullaney knew that number 3 was important to Smile Train's success. That's why their millions of mailings included a photograph of a disfigured child in need of cleft surgery. While no fund-raiser in his right mind would ever publicly admit to manipulating donors with social pressure, everyone knew how strong this incentive was. But what if, Mullaney thought, instead of downplaying the pressure, Smile Train were to highlight it? That is, what if Smile Train offered potential donors a way to alleviate the social pressure and give money at the same time? That's how a strategy known as "once-and-done" was born. Here's what Smile Train would tell potential donors: Make one gift now and we'll never ask for another donation again.
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Steven D. Levitt
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SuperFreakonomics: Global
In a complex world where people can be atypical in an infinite number of ways, there is great value in discovering the baseline. And knowing what happens on average is a good place to start. By so doing, we insulate ourselves from the tendency to build our thinking - our daily decisions, our laws, our governance - on exceptions and anomalies rather than on reality.
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Steven D. Levitt
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SuperFreakonomics: Global
The data don't lie: a Chicago street prostitute is more likely to have sex with a cop than to be arrested by one.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
The non-profit industry itself, "the most dysfunctional $300 billion industry in the world," as he saw it. Mullaney had come to believe that too many philanthropists engage in what Peter Buffett, a son of the über-billionaire Warren Buffett, calls "conscience laundering"-doing charity to make themselves feel better rather than fighting to figure out the best ways to alleviate suffering.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
It's much better to ask small questions than big ones.
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Steven D. Levitt
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When to Rob a Bank
Most people are terrible at risk assessment. They tend to overstate the risk of dramatic and unlikely events at the expense of more common and boring {if equally devastating} events.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Think Like a Freak
That is in part because the very words "education reform" indicate that the question is "What's wrong with our schools?" when in reality, the question might be better phrased as "Why do American kids know less than kids from Estonia and Poland?" When you ask the question differently, you look for answers in different places.
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Steven D. Levitt
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Freakonomics: A Rogue
Information is the currency of the Internet. As a medium, the Internet is brilliantly efficient at shifting information from the hands of those who have it into the hands of those who do not. Often, as in the case of term life insurance prices, the information existed but in a woefully scattered way. {In such instances, the Internet acts like a gigantic horseshoe magnet waved over an endless sea of haystacks, plucking the needle out of each one.} The Internet has accomplished what even the most fervent consumer advocates usually cannot: it has vastly shrunk the gap between the experts and the public.
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