Knutson's group shows that the greater the probability of reward, the more...

Knutson's group shows that the greater the probability of reward, the more activation in the medial PFC.96 But switches from 50 to 25 percent and from 50 to 75 percent both reduce the magnitude of uncertainty. And the secondary rise of dopamine for a 25 or 75 percent likelihood of reward is smaller than for 50 percent. Thus, anticipatory dopamine release peaks with the greatest uncertainty as to whether a reward will occur.fn49 Interestingly, in circumstances of uncertainty, enhanced anticipatory dopamine release is mostly in the mesocortical rather than mesolimbic pathway, implying that uncertainty is a more cognitively complex state than is anticipation of predictable reward.

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