Financial market data – specifically, movements in the prices of government bonds – strongly reinforce the impression that the war came as a surprise to the people who had the biggest incentive to anticipate it.
The analysis of financial market data, particularly regarding fluctuations in government bond prices, suggests that key investors and decision-makers were not adequately prepared for the outbreak of war. This lack of foresight indicates a significant oversight among those who had the most motivation to predict such an event.
Niall Ferguson's work highlights the disconnect between the political realities of the era and the expectations of financial experts. As the global landscape shifted, the unanticipated nature of World War I reveals how even the most informed individuals can misjudge impending crises.
