He really ought to remember. . . . The airburst, if it happens, will be in visual range. Abstractions, math, models are fine, but when you're down to it and everybody's hollering for a fix, this is what you do: you go and sit exactly on the target with indifferent shallow trenches for shelter, and you watch it in the silent fire-bloom of its last few seconds, and see what you will see. Chances are astronomically against a perfect hit, of course, that is why one is safest at the center of the target area. Rockets are supposed to be like artillery shells, they disperse about the aiming point in a giant ellipse-the Ellipse of Uncertainty. But

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The passage reflects the tension and uncertainty associated with the potential impact of rockets, highlighting both their destructive power and the unpredictability of their trajectories. The speaker emphasizes a need for direct observation rather than reliance on theoretical models, suggesting that when faced with imminent danger, one might choose to sit directly at the target and witness the event firsthand, despite the odds against a precise strike. This act can be seen as a metaphor for confronting the chaos of existence itself.

By acknowledging the “Ellipse of Uncertainty,” the text conveys a sense of vulnerability inherent in the human experience, where individuals must grapple with forces beyond their control. The tension between the expected outcomes and the reality of random chance underscores a deeper philosophical reflection on fate and survival. It invites readers to consider the implications of their choices in the face of existential threats and the thin line between safety and peril.

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February 20, 2025

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