The quote by Martin Van Creveld highlights the precarious and volatile situation that Syria faces during a period of potential regime change. It draws attention to the unintended consequences of overthrowing entrenched power structures without a clear plan for stability and governance afterwards. The comparison to Afghanistan is particularly insightful, given Afghanistan's history as a failed state where extremism has found fertile ground. This cautionary perspective reminds us that the collapse of an authoritarian regime does not automatically lead to a better or more stable society. Instead, it can plunge the nation into chaos, warlordism, and extremist control, which can have far-reaching regional and global security implications.

The identification of Syria potentially becoming a base for anti-Israel terrorism highlights the geopolitical sensitivity of the conflict. It reflects the complex interweaving of local civil conflicts with broader international security concerns. While the hope for democratic liberation and human rights is strong and justifiable, this quote challenges naive optimism by acknowledging the dangers of power vacuums which can be exploited by extremist groups. Van Creveld’s frank assessment compels policymakers, observers, and citizens alike to consider the complexity of regime change in fragile states and the importance of post-conflict reconstruction, international cooperation, and vigilant security measures.

Ultimately, this reflects a sobering reality in international affairs: the road to peace and democracy is often non-linear and fraught with risks. The future of Syria, like many conflict-ridden nations, depends heavily on how local, regional, and international actors navigate this precarious balance between downfall and stability.