Chaos theory throws it right out the window. It says that you can never predict certain phenomena at all. You can never predict the weather more than a few days away. All the money that has been spent on long-range forecasting-about half a billion dollars in the last few decades-is money wasted. It's a fool's errand. It's as pointless as trying to turn lead into gold. We look back at the alchemists and laugh at what they were trying to do, but future generations will laugh at us the same way. We've tried the impossible-and spent a lot of money doing it. Because in fact there are great categories of phenomena that are inherently unpredictable.
Chaos theory suggests that certain phenomena, like weather patterns, are fundamentally unpredictable. Despite significant investment in long-range forecasting, attempts to predict events far into the future have proven largely futile, akin to the alchemists' misguided pursuit of turning lead into gold. This raises questions about the effectiveness of the resources spent on such predictions.
According to Michael Crichton's "Jurassic Park," the resources devoted to forecasting not only seem wasteful but are also seen as an exercise in futility. As history has shown, some natural events simply cannot be anticipated, and future generations may look back at current efforts with the same skepticism we reserve for the alchemical practices of the past.
