The metaphor of diplomacy as a card game captures the inherent uncertainty and strategic deception involved in diplomatic negotiations. Just as in a card game, players often hold cards of unknown value, and they must read their opponents' intentions, bluff, and adapt their strategies accordingly. This analogy highlights the idea that diplomats and political leaders frequently operate in environments where information is incomplete or unreliable. They cannot be certain about the true motives of their counterparts or the strength of their own positions, making diplomacy a complex dance of risk management and psychological insight.

In real-world diplomacy, the stakes are often high, and the outcomes can influence nations' futures. Like in poker or bridge, success depends on a keen understanding of human behavior, the ability to read subtle cues, and knowing when to hold firm or when to fold. The phrase also suggests that sometimes, leaders may be unaware of their own advantages or disadvantages—underscoring the importance of intelligence, intuition, and strategic patience.

This analogy resonates particularly in geopolitical crises where misinformation, covert agendas, and fluctuating alliances create a volatile playing field. Diplomatic negotiations require careful calculations, weighing the potential rewards against the risks of revealing too much or making premature moves. Just as a skilled card player hides their true hand, adept diplomats conceal their true intentions until the appropriate moment. This dynamic underscores the importance of trust, deception, and psychology in international relations, revealing how much of diplomacy is about perception, and how little of it is about pure facts.

Reflecting on this quote reveals the complexity and nuance of diplomatic interactions, illustrating that in the game of international politics, understanding oneself is just as crucial as understanding others. It emphasizes that diplomacy is not a straightforward contest but a sophisticated game involving strategy, patience, and sometimes, a bit of luck.

—Tom Clancy, in '(Executive Orders)'