He gave a talk in which he argued that the way they measured risk was completely idiotic. They measured risk by volatility: how much a stock or bond happened to have jumped around in the past few years. Real risk was not volatility; real risk was stupid investment decisions.

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The speaker criticized the conventional method of assessing risk in financial markets, which often relies on the volatility of stocks or bonds. He described this approach as fundamentally flawed, labeling it “completely idiotic.” By focusing solely on past price fluctuations, it overlooks the underlying factors that contribute to genuine risk.

He posited that true risk arises from poor investment choices rather than market volatility. This insight suggests a need for a more nuanced understanding of risk that considers decision-making processes and behaviors rather than just historical market movements.

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January 26, 2025

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