In "The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam," Barbara W. Tuchman explores the theme of folly in leadership and decision-making throughout history. The quote, "No one is sure of his premise as the man who knows too little," implies that ignorance can breed a false sense of certainty. Leaders who lack adequate information are often the most confident in their misguided beliefs, which can lead to disastrous outcomes.

Tuchman's work emphasizes how the lack of knowledge and understanding can influence significant events and decisions, drawing parallels from historical examples. This observation serves as a cautionary reminder about the importance of informed leadership and the dangers of overconfidence in one's assumptions, especially in times of crisis.