In her book "The Guns of August," Barbara W. Tuchman reflects on Otto von Bismarck's foresight regarding the potential causes of conflict in Europe. He famously remarked that a minor incident in the Balkans could spark a major war. This prediction came true when Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated by Serbian nationalists on June 28, 1914, marking a pivotal moment that would lead to the outbreak of World War I.

The assassination not only fulfilled Bismarck's ominous forecast but also set off a chain reaction of alliances and military mobilizations that escalated tensions across Europe. Tuchman illustrates how this single event became the catalyst for a war that involved multiple nations and reshaped the political landscape of the continent. The significance of this moment cannot be understated, as it highlights the fragility of peace in a time of rivalries and nationalistic fervor.