Niall Ferguson's book "The Square and the Tower" delves into the intricate relationship between policy and bureaucracy. He suggests that policy is inherently contingent, relying on estimates that often contain an element of uncertainty. The success of any policy initiative hinges on how accurately these estimates align with reality, which can be unpredictable. This unpredictability creates challenges for effective governance.

On the other hand, bureaucracy strives for safety and reliability through calculable processes. Ferguson argues that when policy is managed through bureaucratic means, it may become overly focused on quantifiable outcomes, potentially leading to a rigid response to dynamic situations. Consequently, this fixation on calculability can trap bureaucratic systems, rendering them less responsive to the evolving nature of events surrounding them.