If only one person were perfectly informed there could never be a general crisis. But the only perfectly informed person is God, and he does not play the stock market.

If only one person were perfectly informed there could never be a general crisis. But the only perfectly informed person is God, and he does not play the stock market.

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This quote underscores the inherent uncertainty and imperfect information that characterizes financial markets and human decision-making. The essence of the statement lies in the recognition that complete knowledge, especially in complex systems like economics and finance, is practically impossible. When investors, policymakers, and individuals act based on incomplete or asymmetric information, markets become unpredictable and susceptible to crises dubbed 'black swan' events. The humorous yet pointed remark that only God possesses perfect knowledge highlights our human limitations and the chaos resultant from our ignorance. The quote also hints at the fundamental challenge in economics: how to make informed decisions under uncertainty and the importance of trust, regulations, and risk management. Notably, the acknowledgment that even the most informed individuals do not possess perfect information reveals why markets are inherently volatile—they are driven not solely by facts but also by perceptions, rumors, and biases. Recognizing these epistemological limits should encourage humility among market participants and policymakers. It suggests that aiming for perfect foresight is futile and that safeguards such as diversification and oversight are necessary. The comparison to God's knowledge also stimulates philosophical reflection about omniscience and human fallibility, as well as the moral implications of ignorance and greed fueling market behavior. Overall, the quote eloquently captures the delicate balance between knowledge and uncertainty that underpins economic and financial phenomena, reminding us that reality is often beyond our complete understanding, which is a crucial consideration for preventing and managing crises.

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June 22, 2025

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