If we had started global decarbonization in 2000, when Al Gore narrowly lost election to the American presidency, we would have had to cut emissions by only about 3 percent per year to stay safely under two degrees of warming. If we start today, when global emissions are still growing, the necessary rate is 10 percent. If we delay another decade, it will require us to cut emissions by 30 percent each year. This is why U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres believes we have only one year to change course and get started.
The urgency of global decarbonization has significantly increased since the early 2000s. If action had begun in 2000, we would have needed to reduce emissions by only 3% annually to avoid severe warming. However, due to inaction and the ongoing rise in global emissions, starting today requires a much steeper reduction of 10% annually to keep global temperature increases below two degrees. This stark contrast highlights the consequences of delayed action.
Moreover, if we wait another decade, the necessary cuts would escalate to an alarming 30% each year. This troubling projection underscores the rationale behind U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres' assertion that we have just one year to alter our trajectory. The time to act is now to prevent catastrophic environmental changes, as emphasized by David Wallace-Wells in his analysis of the potential future faced due to climate inaction.
