There were a great many interesting questions in the world to which the only honest answer was, It's impossible to know for sure. What will the price of oil be in ten years? was such a question. That didn't mean you gave up trying to find an answer; you just couched that answer in probabilistic terms.
In Michael Lewis's book "The Undoing Project," the author presents a perspective on the uncertainty inherent in several global issues. He notes that many intriguing questions, such as predicting oil prices a decade into the future, often defy definitive answers. The acknowledgment of such uncertainty does not equate to inactivity; rather, it encourages a nuanced approach to understanding and estimating these unpredictable situations.
The author emphasizes the importance of framing answers in probabilistic terms. This approach recognizes the complexity and variability of real-world phenomena while allowing for informed speculation. Thus, while certainty may be unachievable, engaging with these uncertainties thoughtfully can still lead to useful insights and better decision-making.
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