In "A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century," Barbara W. Tuchman explores the concept of rulers' overconfidence, particularly highlighting the wisdom attributed to those in power. The text suggests that even a ruler known for his intelligence, referred to as 'the Wise,' is not exempt from the common flaw among leaders: an inflated belief in their ability to govern effectively and manage circumstances.

This tendency towards overestimation can lead to grave miscalculations and can significantly affect the stability of their reign. Tuchman’s work illustrates how the complexity and unpredictability of historical events often surpass the control that rulers believe they possess, resulting in dire consequences during tumultuous times.