We see the world as less random than it actually is.

We see the world as less random than it actually is.

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This quote by Nassim Taleb insightfully captures a common cognitive bias known as the illusion of control or the misunderstanding of randomness. Humans have a fundamental need to identify patterns, causality, and order in their environment, which serves an evolutionary purpose—predicting future events and making decisions based on perceived certainty. However, this tendency often blinds us to the true randomness and unpredictability present in many aspects of life.

Taleb's observation is critical, especially in contexts where luck and chance play a dominant role, such as financial markets, social phenomena, or even our personal experiences. By underestimating randomness, we may attribute success or failure entirely to skill, decisions, or inherent qualities when, in reality, a significant portion may arise from randomness and luck. This misperception can lead to overconfidence, flawed decision-making, and the underappreciation of risk.

Moreover, this insight encourages humility and a shift towards probabilistic thinking rather than deterministic views. It reminds us to critically assess what information we have, be aware of the limitations of our knowledge, and maintain an openness to uncertainty. Embracing the world's randomness doesn’t imply helplessness but rather equips us to better navigate complexity by preparing for multiple outcomes instead of assuming predictability.

Ultimately, Taleb's statement challenges us to rethink how we interpret events and the narratives we construct around them, fostering greater intellectual humility and resilience in the face of an uncertain world.

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May 29, 2025

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