他们建议，人们对过去的记忆很可能会扭曲他们对未来的判断。 “我们经常认为结果极不可能或不可能，因为我们无法想象任何可能导致它发生的事件链。缺陷通常在我们的想象中。”¶
(What people remember about the past, they suggested, is likely to warp their judgment of the future. "We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible, because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur. The defect, often, is in our imagination."¶ The)