An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen.

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen.

📖 Earl Wilson

🌍 American  |  👨‍💼 Journalist

🎂 May 3, 1907  –  ⚰️ January 16, 1987
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This quote humorously highlights the often unpredictable nature of economics and the challenge faced by economists in providing accurate forecasts. Economics is frequently influenced by numerous variables—political shifts, technological developments, unforeseen global events—that can rapidly alter the course of markets and economies. As a result, predictions made with confidence one day may become obsolete or prove incorrect shortly afterward. The humor lies in the humility (or perhaps the fallibility) of economic forecasts; economists, despite their expertise, are sometimes forced to rationalize why their previous predictions failed. It underscores the importance of viewing economic predictions with a healthy dose of skepticism and humility. This quote also points to a broader theme: the difficulty of predicting complex, dynamic systems. Economic regimes are influenced by human behavior, policy decisions, and coincidental events, which are inherently unpredictable and often nonlinear. Moreover, it comments on the tendency of experts to reinterpret their predictions in light of new data, sometimes retroactively fitting their forecasts to the outcomes, which can lead to biased perceptions of their expertise. The value in this insight is to remind us that forecasts are educated guesses, not certainties. Accepting the inherent uncertainty in economic projections can encourage more flexible planning and policy formulation, acknowledging that unexpected outcomes are inevitable. The quote invites both economists and laypeople alike to maintain a sense of humility about predictions and to recognize that failure to forecast accurately does not necessarily reflect poorly on one’s expertise, but rather on the complex and unpredictable nature of economic systems.

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August 19, 2025

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